Uncertainty analysis

The systematic uncertainty analysis completed in assessments of health risks essentially serves three purposes: 

– The uncertainty analysis creates transparency throughout the risk assessment process, for example, by describing assumptions and constraints as well as their handling. 

– The uncertainty analysis serves to document the aspects mentioned in section 1. 

– The uncertainty analysis indicates courses of action with which the identified uncertainties can be reduced in the future. 

The uncertainty analysis is divided into the following four steps: 

1. Identification of uncertainties and variabilities 

2. Assessment of the individual uncertainties 

3. Assessment of the overall influence of the uncertainties on the final result 

4. Description of options to reduce the uncertainties 

The uncertainty analysis can be integrated into the hazard or risk characterisation, for example through probabilistic methods or plausibility checks of additional uncertainty or assessment factors. In contrast to uncertainties, variabilities if they are relevant to the assessment, should be covered in the risk assessment. Variabilities that, due to a lack of sufficient data, cannot be described but can only be assumed should be described as uncertainties or as areas requiring further research.