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Analysis of German BSE Surveillance Data: Estimation of the Prevalence of Confirmed Cases versus the Number of Infected, but Non-Detected, Cattle to Assess Confidence in Freedom from Infection.

Quantitative risk assessments for Bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) necessitate estimates for key parameters such as the prevalence of infection, the probability of absence of infection in defined birth cohorts, and the numbers of BSE-infected, but non-detected cattle entering the food chain. We estimated three key parameters with adjustment for misclassification using the German BSE surveillance data using a Gompertz model for latent (i.e., unobserved) age-dependent detection probabilities and a Poisson response model for the number of BSE cases for birth cohorts 1999 to 2015.

The article is published in the journal "Environmental Research and Public Health".

Analysis of German BSE Surveillance Data: Estimation of the Prevalence of Confirmed Cases versus the Number of Infected, but Non-Detected, Cattle to Assess Confidence in Freedom from Infection.
Greiner, M.; Selhorst, T.; Balkema-Buschmann, A.; Johnson, W.O.; Müller-Graf, C.; Conraths, F.J. Analysis of German BSE Surveillance
Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2021, 18, 9966.
https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18199966

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